COVID-19 is not the first pandemic that the world has witnessed in the recent times. What makes this different and possibly the first ever are:
1. The spread of this infection has gripped more than 150 countries, rich or poor
2. Economies of all countries coming to a near grinding halt or severely getting impacted
3. Billions of people around the globe being locked up in their homes to reduce the spread and break the chain. India a country of 1.3 billion being locked for more than 40 days now
4. Exposed the healthcare system of many advanced economies which were not prepared for this invisible enemy
5. Aviation, railways, road transportation of all major countries were operating at around 10-15% of their capacity (movement of essential goods). Rest all were grounded.
There are many more.
What will change beyond this? What can be it's impact (if any)? How will industries, companies and economies cope up?
I have been thinking, observing some of the "New Normal" over the last 40 plus days and wanted to share my thoughts with all.
Manufacturing and logistics sector:
A large part of global manufacturing was moved to China during last 2 decades in order to cut cost and achieve economies of scale. This created a huge dependence on this country. Any disruption like this pandemic has exposed the whole supply chain.
JIT and lean manufacturing has also exposed stock out situations of even essential goods and many critical items.
With interstate or inter-continental transportation hit hard, strategies on last mile logistics has become an absolute must. How to supply goods and service to the millions of citizen and keep the lifeline going will be a question to ask?
1. Alternate sources will now be scouted and there will certainly be some focus on this
2. Near shore manufacturing will be encouraged and being self reliant may become the need for future
3. Local manufacturing and distribution will be another area which may make a comeback
4. More emphasis will be given to app based/on-demand delivery/logistics which is more predictable delivery timelines with possibly being near sourced
5. Last mile delivery and logistics solution will be in demand and employment opportunities will grow
Will this happen overnight? No. Will some of this happen in some countries? Absolutely.
Banking and Information Technology sector:
The banking sector for a while has been going digital and need for cash, meeting a banker, visiting a branch are slowly getting diminished.
The lockdown just reinforced this more and we will see this trend continuing and becoming more virtual. Just think, when did many of us visit a bank to get something done?
Information technology sector has had a mix of working from home and working from office for a while now. In India, this was more skewed (working from office was the norm).
1. Digital payments and online/app based banking will be promoted and will only become more prevalent
2. Cashless and contact less transactions will be more acceptable
3. Working remotely for IT professional will become a new way of life. Companies will not invest in office spaces and employees may visit office on a need basis or by rotation
4. Telecom and communication businesses and enablers will find new way to foster collaboration, find innovation to help users work and perform even at lower bandwidth
5. Higher internet bandwidth and need for this will grow
Transportation, Hospitality, Automotive and Aviation sector:
This sector has taken a big beating and is wiping out jobs across the globe. There may be some significant changes to these sectors and business models may change
1. Business travel will sharply decrease as remote/virtual meetings have been working fairly well. This is also able to save a lot of cost
2. Passenger volume of airlines which banked on business travelers will now see lower numbers
3. There may be a need to innovate and think of how passengers can safely travel in the skies compacted in a vessel
4. Hospitality industry will see a lull for a while and will see growth once people feel safe to travel and want to spend on vacations. Job losses across the sectors will only make it worse
5. Rental and app based transportation will see a slowdown as people may feel uncomfortable to use them for obvious reasons. This model will stay as new normal in terms of person conduct is defined. Some changes will certainly need to be enforced from a safety perspective
6. There may be an increase in operations of personal vehicles, but this will be countered based on less number of people needing to travel and go to work
Healthcare sector:
This sector has witnessed different challenges with growing and aging population, increasing cost of service, lack of 'Qualified' professionals etc. This pandemic has brought in a different challenge for them
1. How to save more lives with limited resources
2. How to protect oneself while serving others
3. What protocols need to be altered in case of more deadly contagious diseases surface in the future (if that happens)
and many more
What this sector may see are
1. Balancing between telemedicine and out patient services
2. Advanced diagnostics and testing mechanism that a patient can do from home instead of coming to a clinic
3. Management of sick and potentially sick patients when they visit a hospital or clinic
4. How to quickly change the configuration of a fixed capacity hospital based on the need for certain services e.g. creating ICUs, isolation rooms, operation theaters etc.
5. How to ensure consistent supply of essential equipment, protective kits, etc. in case of any disruptions
6. Ability to scale man-power and staff in case of a disaster
Education sector:
This sector will innovate and transform the most
1. Schools and colleges will possibly promote remote/video conferencing to teach students
2. Self learning sessions will be given a boost
3. Students now can choose the school from their home and not need to be in that city anymore
4. Cost of education may also go down as infrastructure in large cities where schools and colleges spend a lot of money building large campuses
Whether the above will hold good or all will be back to how it was in 2019, only time and the length of this pandemic will tell.
What this crisis has certainly taught all of us is
1. Being more compassionate to each other
2. Being able to live within limited resources and movement for a longer period of time
3. Acknowledging the need to put more thrust in healthcare systems and personal hygiene
Would like to hear comments and thoughts from all who took the time to read through this long post.
Lets create a better and healthier tomorrow